Mass Audubon: climate change in Winthrop

Town of Winthrop · from the Town's website · 21 pages · 2.5 MB
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Daniel Brown
Climate Change Program Coordinator
dbrown@massaudubon.org
Climate Change in Winthrop

Key changes already observed in
Massachusetts.
2.9 ° F
Since 1895
Temperature:
11 Days
Since 1950
Growing Season:
11 inches
Since 1922
Sea Level Rise:
55%
Since 1958
Strong Storms:
Source: Climate Science Special Report, 2017; NOAA NCEI nClimDiv ; NOAA Ocean Service

Suffolk County Projected Changes
(2040 - 2069)
4.9 ° F
Annual Average
Temperature
2.4 feet Sea Level Rise
44%
Days with >2”
Precipitation
Source: Northeast Climate Science Center, MassClimateChange.org, Values shown for the Blackstone River Watershed.
19 Days Days Above 90 ° F

15000 BCE

What’s in a degree?

During the last ice
age, temperatures
were 9°F cooler
than today.

Google

Source: NCICS State Climate Summaries. Observational data from NOAA nClimDiv dataset. Accessed 2017.
Adaptation Mitigation

Source: Northeast Climate Science Center, MassClimateChange.org, accessed 2018.

Changing Energy Use and Demand
More Warm Winter Days, Less Heating Demand
(based on annual Heating Degree - Days, base 65)
More Warm Summer Days, More Cooling Demand
(based on annual Cooling Degree - Days, base 65)
11 – 24%
by the 2050s
44 – 120%
by the 2050s
1971 - 2000
6079 Heating Degree - days
1971 - 2000
636 Cooling Degree - days
Source: Northeast Climate Science Center, MassClimateChange.org, accessed 2018.

With drastic global emissions reductions
With “business - as - usual” emissions

Belle,|s leg
Marsh

Belle
Isle Inlet

Boston Harbor

3’ SLR

Boston Harbor

SF ae
Marsh
Ne A

Belle
Isle Inlet

Golf Club:

Boston Harbor

Typical Downscaled and Global Climate
Model Resolution
Elevation data from PRISM, shown at 200 km and 24 km resolutions. Elevation profile is a key local and regional factor on cli mat e .

Climate Change Indicators by Geographic Scale
HUC - 8 Watersheds State
2050s Annual Average Temperature Change

Climate Data and Planning
• The current and projected trajectory of many
changes in climate are clear.
• Local variations are most often within the projected
margin of error of climate models. Local variations
are usually not practically significant.
• The resolution of climate data is not usually a
limiting factor in planning. At the local scale, other
factors may play a larger role.

More Precipitation
Source: NOAA Changes are calculated from a linear regression of annual totals from 1895 - 2015, 1901 - 2000 reference period.
1.2 trillion more gallons of
water equivalent falling on
Massachusetts each year.
~9,700 filled Prudential Towers
Total annual precipitation
has increased by:
15%

Change in 24 - hour, 100 - year
Design Storms (inches)
NOAA TP - 40 NOAA Atlas 14 Change
Taunton 6.9” 7.7” 12%
Boston 6.6” 7.8” 18%
Worcester 6.5” 7.6” 17%
NOAA Atlas 14: http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/

An anecdotal rule of thumb for
anticipating changes in extreme
precipitation…
Models often project a return
period shorter by a factor of 2 to 4.
Often:
But projections vary place - to - place.
10 - year
storm
25 - year
storm
100 - year
storm

Long - term change doesn’t rule
out shorter - term variability.
Example: Even as average
temperatures warm, we will
still experience winter storms.

Impact Example: Water Infrastructure
Freeze Vulnerability
Rising winter temperatures
reduce spring snow cover.
+
Risk of spring cold snaps
remains relatively stable.
=
Increased subsurface
freeze risk

Impact Example: Public Health
Algal Blooms
Warmer Lake
Temperatures
Stronger Storms
Changed Lake
Dynamics
Greater Nutrient Loading
More Runoff
Algal Blooms,
Fish Kills
West Monponsett Pond, Halifax, Massachusetts

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